Japan’s population projected to shrink
日本研究所预测：2070年日本总人口将减少30%
Japan’s population is expected to fall to 87 million by 2070, shrinking 30 percent from 2020, a government estimate showed Wednesday, highlighting the country’s need to overhaul its social security systems and restructure its urban communities.据《今日日本》报（Japan Today）报道，日本政府上月26日公布的一项估计显示，到2070年，日本人口预计将降至8700万，比2020年减少30%，这凸显日本需要全面改革其社会保障体系并重组其城市社区。
Foreign residents, including students and workers residing in Japan for more than three months, are set to comprise 10.8 percent of the population at 9.39 million in 2070, expanding from 2.2 percent in 2020.外国居民，包括在日本居住三个月以上的留学生和外籍工人，将从2020年的2.2%增加到2070年的939万人，占总人口的10.8%。
The National Institute of Population and Security Research said those aged 65 or above in Japan are projected to hit 33.67 million in 2070 after peaking at 39.53 million in 2043. 日本国立社会保障和人口问题研究所表示，日本65岁以上人口将在2043年达到3953万人的峰值，到2070年将达到3367万人。
In 2070, they will comprise 38.7 percent of the population, resulting in ballooning social security costs.届时，他们将占人口的38.7%，使得社会保障成本激增。
The health ministry’s research body provides 50-year demographic forecasts approximately every five years based on public data such as censuses. 该日本厚生劳动省下属研究机构根据人口普查等公共数据大约每5年提供一次50年的人口预测。
The government will use the latest data to calculate the country’s future pension payouts.日本政府将使用最新的数据来计算该国未来的养老金支出。
The population, numbering 126.15 million as of 2020, is expected to fall under the 100 million threshold in 2056, it said. 该报告称，截至2020年，日本人口数量为1.2615亿，预计将在2056年跌破1亿。
The projected fertility rate, or the expected number of children born per woman during child-bearing years, was at 1.36 for 2070, slightly up from 1.33 in 2020 but remaining well below the 2.07 level required to maintain the population.2070年的预计生育率，即每名妇女在其育龄期生育的预期子女数，为1.36，略高于2020年的1.33，但仍远低于维持人口数量的门槛2.07。
The number of births, which slipped below 800,000 in 2022, is likely to decline further to under 700,000 in 2043 and below 500,000 in 2070, the institute said.该研究所表示，出生人口在2022年下降到80万以下，在2043年可能进一步下降到70万以下，在2070年下降到50万以下。
People aged 15 to 64, the working-age population that supports the country’s social security systems by paying premiums, are forecast to decline sharply to 45.35 million in 2070 from 75.09 million in 2020. 15至64岁的人，即通过缴纳保险费支持日本的社会保障体系的工作年龄人口，预计将从2020年的7509万大幅下降到2070年的4535万。
Those aged 14 and under are estimated to decrease to 7.97 million in 2070 from 15.03 million in 2020.14岁及以下的人口估计将从2020年的1503万减少到2070年的797万。
The population’s average age is projected to be 47.6 in 2020, rising to 54.0 in 2070. 日本人口的平均年龄预计在2020年为47.6岁，到2070年上升到54岁。
Men’s average life expectancy is expected to reach 85.89 in 2070 from 81.58 in 2020, while that of women is likely to climb to 91.94 from 87.72.男性的平均预期寿命将从2020年的81.58岁达到2070年的85.89岁，而女性的平均预期寿命可能从87.72岁升至91.94岁。
However, according to Masashi Kawai, director of a research center on population decline prevention, the latest data “overstates the rise in the foreign population and does not take into account pandemic-caused falls in the younger generation’s desire to marry or have children.”然而，根据日本人口下降预防研究中心主任Masashi Kawai的说法，最新的数据“夸大了外国人口的增长，没有考虑到疫情导致的年轻一代结婚或生孩子意愿的下降。”
