Market Mismatch on US Interest Rates
美国利率预期与市场脱节
Despite the buzz around Trump‘s return to the White House, there is a significant gap between expected economic growth and interest rate forecasts. The Fed’s December meeting, with its “hawkish” stance, led markets to adjust, now expecting two rate cuts in 2025 instead of four. However, we disagree with this outlook. We believe the Fed will not cut rates in 2025 and may even raise them starting in September due to resilient US economic growth and inflationary pressures from Trump’s policies. Key factors include strong economic indicators, robust consumer sentiment, and resilient employment across sectors, which suggest continued expansion rather than a recession.
尽管围绕特朗普重返白宫的喧嚣不断，但市场对经济增长的预期与利率预期之间仍存在显著差距。美联储12月的会议以“鹰派”姿态吓坏了市场，导致市场预期2025年将降息两次，而不是之前的四次。然而，我们不同意这种观点。我们相信美联储在2025年不会降息，甚至可能从9月开始加息，因为美国经济的韧性和特朗普政策带来的通胀压力。关键因素包括强劲的经济指标、稳健的消费者情绪以及就业市场的韧性，这些迹象表明经济将继续扩张，而不是走向衰退。
